Congo-Brazzaville: Before the election is after the election

The Republic of Congo is exploiting the systemic competition between the EU, China and Russia to maximise its scope for action in terms of financing, infrastructure and security. While the EU remains a natural partner on environmental and transformation issues, deficits in the rule of law, accountability and electoral integrity limit the depth of cooperation. China is rapidly delivering large-scale infrastructure in exchange for resource commitments; Russia fills normative gaps with a discourse of sovereignty and non-interference and anchors energy and security policy agreements. No politically transformative results are to be expected before the 2026 presidential elections; rather, the strategic relevance lies in the continuation of an authoritarian-stabilised order that presents itself as a guarantor of peace and development. In this constellation, the focus for European actors is shifting from short-term election observation to medium- and long-term levers: green industrialisation, critical raw materials and logistics corridors, governance safeguards, youth-centred employment and a realistically calibrated mix of principledness and pragmatism.