The Deteriorating Security Situation In West Africa - European and International Cooperation

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“The Deteriorating Security Situation in West Africa”

A joint project of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung and the Counter Extremism Project (CEP)

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Titelbild Projekt West Africa’s Terrorist Challenge

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.

The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung and the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) are jointly implementing the one-year project “The Deteriorating Security Situation in West Africa” from November 2022 to the end of October 2023.

In West Africa, we can observe a steady decline in stability since several years with a simultaneous increase in the terrorist threat. Above all, the Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin' (JNIM), which is linked to al-Qaida, and the two branch organisations of the Islamic State (IS), IS West Africa Province and IS in the Greater Sahara, are steadily increasing their influence. For IS in particular, the African continent is becoming increasingly important. The Sahel region in western Africa is now the epicenter of global terrorism - in 2022, there were more terrorist related deaths here than in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa combined (Global Terrorist Index 2023).

Within the region, terrorist groups and networks exploit ethnic differences and exacerbating violence between communities. They are also closely intertwined with transnational organised crime, complicating an already fragile situation. This evolving terrorist threat is exacerbated by political instability (e.g. military coups) and ongoing severe economic problems. This poses significant challenges for regional cooperation formats such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), but also has implications - beyond the region - for Germany and Europe.

Threat to German and European interests

Germany and Europa have developed considerable engagement in the region. Increasing regional instability and growing terrorist structures pose an obvious threat to German interests in the region, while the interconnectedness of terrorism with transnational organised crime, including smuggling, human trafficking and illicit drug trafficking, also poses a clear threat to German and European security. Therefore, as part of the development of a new German security strategy, further German engagement in the region should be examined and potentially effective, new or enhanced formats for engagement should be explored.

“The Deteriorating Security Situation in West Africa” Project

In view of this growing threat, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung and the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) have launched the joint project “The Deteriorating Security Situation in West Africa”. The aim of this project is to raise awareness of the relevance of these developments among political decision-makers in Germany and at the level of the European Union. The project focuses on security and counter-terrorism issues as well as the analysis of the deteriorating security situation in the region. The focus is on the question of what impact the spread of transnational terrorism has on the internal security of Germany and the European Union, as well as the derivation of targeted and operationally relevant recommendations for action for political decision-makers. The project includes the production of various papers as well as a weekly social media analysis, which monitors and evaluates the activities of relevant actors and terrorist networks in West Africa.

Strategy papers at a glance

The papers deal with different main topics: 1. Current status of terrorism threat, 2. Problematic external state actors, 3. Internal drivers of terrorism threat, 4. Effective countermeasures.

Current status of terrorism threat

The first topic deals with the current state of the terrorist threat in West Africa. It examines both the development of the most relevant terrorist actors and their growing links to transnational organised crime in West Africa. Furthermore, it will be examined whether (and which) links exist between regional terrorist groups in West Africa and other regions of sub-Saharan Africa.

Problematic external state actors that may drive terrorism threat

External actors also play a growing role in the West African security environment and must therefore be taken into account in current analyses and recommendations for action. The second topic therefore focuses on Russia and China as external actors and examines which developments and challenges arise from their growing presence in the region.

Challenging external actors (Russia) and continued conflict in the region
Challenging external actors (China) and continued conflict in the region

Internal drivers of terrorism threat

A sustainable and successful fight against terrorism is only possible if corresponding strategies also consider and include the underlying causes. Against this backdrop, the third thematic complex is dedicated to processes of inter-communal violence, political instability and economic deprivation in West Africa, which act as gateways for jihadist recruitment efforts and enable the spread of jihadist spheres of action.

Intercommunal violence and terrorism in West Africa

Towards effective countermeasures

Effective countermeasures against the spread of terrorism and instability must involve the local, national and regional levels in order to be effective and sustainable. In this sense, the fourth thematic complex evaluates the different levels of impact as well as relevant existing actors at the regional level and finally describes what a renewed long-term German stabilisation and security strategy in West Africa should look like.

Towards a renewed long-term German stabilization and security strategy in West Africa (recommendations jointly developed by CEP and KAS)

Social Media Monitoring

Various terrorist actors active in West Africa use social media for their external presentation as well as for propaganda and recruitment processes. Close monitoring and analysis of social media content can therefore provide important insights into their activities and strategic approach in the region. The project will produce weekly social media reports and monthly summaries.