"It is presumed, that it will come to an end on April 15th, a public holiday and birthday of the country's founder Kim Il Sung," said Dr. Norbert Eschborn, head of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung office in the Republic of Korea, in an interview with RBB info radio.

The Korea expert does not expect a major North Korean attack. "We do expect at least a rocket launch and perhaps also another nuclear test though", said Eschborn. These kinds of big gestures could take place, but Eschborn doubts that more will happen, because Kim Jong Un will have to find a way without losing face in order to keep his credibility.

According to Eschborn, the threats serve to confuse the public. "But the Koreans stay very calm nevertheless, because they have been living with this kind of rhetoric and government gestures for many decades by now”.

The regime warned foreign embassies in Pyongyang and advised them to leave North Korea, but many diplomats refuse to leave the country. Eschborn assumes the embassies take the threats seriously, “but they weigh it up in how far the regime will make their threats become truth”. Many experts see the risk as comparatively low, said Eschborn, because the North would have more to lose from a confrontation.

Furthermore, the closure of the Kaesong special economic zone has negative consequences for the economic relations between both sides. "In the long run, North Korea can not afford the closure because the industrial park is an important source of income for North Korea", Eschborn said. It is estimated that the North gains 90 million dollars annually from the industrial park. But for North Korea’s ideological hard-liners the industrial park has never been without controversy.

The full interview in German can be listened to here. (Please note that contributions from the public service broadcasters are not available permanently.)