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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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Local elections in Poland 2024

Tailwind or setback for the new Tusk government?

Regional and local elections were held in Poland on 7 April 2024. The national-conservative party Law and Justice (PiS) had the best result with 34.4%. In second place was the liberal electoral alliance Civic Coalition (KO) with 30.6%, while the third place on the podium went to the centrist electoral committee Third Way (Trzecia Droga) with 14.3%. In total, the liberal democratic parties won just over 50% and will govern in most of Poland's 16 regions. In this sense, PiS lost this election, if by losing we mean losing power. PiS has no coalition capacity and in principle can only govern where it has won an absolute majority. Its shares in local government have decreased and that of KO has increased. But in terms of image, PiS won the elections.

IMAGO / Hindustan Times

India's parliamentary elections 2024

The invincible against the disunited

When the world's biggest elections are held in India from 19 April to 1 June this year, two unequal opponents will be running against each other for the third time in a row. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), who is seeking his third consecutive term in office, will once again face Rahul Gandhi. Gandhi had always lost to Modi in his previous two attempts. While Narendra Modi has never lost an election in his political career, in which he has held high political office for 22 years without interruption, the opposite is true for Rahul Gandhi. He has never been a minister in a federal or state government and has not led his Congress party to victory in the parliamentary elections in two attempts (2014 and 2019). He also resigned as party leader after his defeat in 2019. Nevertheless, he remains the most well-known face and lynchpin of opposition politics. The following country report briefly explains how elections work in the world's largest democracy and examines the state of opposition politics, particularly with regard to the Congress Party, in the run-up to the 2024 parliamentary elections. It also analyses why the next Prime Minister of India is likely to be called Narendra Modi once again.

IMAGO / Xinhua

The new government of Senegal

Between vision and reality

On March 24, 2024, Senegal elected political newcomer Bassirou Diomaye Faye as its fifth president since the country's independence with an overwhelming majority. Less than 10 days later, on April 2, 2024, he was officially sworn in and immediately began forming a government. The new president announced a "rupture" - a "radical political change". What can we expect from the new government?

IMAGO / SOPA Images

Local elections in Turkey

The national surprise of a local vote

Contrary to predictions, the Turkish local elections have proved to be a success for the opposition. The largest opposition party CHP in particular emerged as the winner. While both the ruling AK Party and the opposition are still caught up in a certain disbelief about the results in the first 48 hours afterwards, the country report provides background information, summarizes the results and discusses possible consequences.

KAS / Maximilian Hedrich

The world is looking for Brazil

Why Europe would do well to meet Brazil on an equal footing

Brazil is preparing for the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro in November. Now the ninth largest economy in the world, Brazil is a key partner for Germany and Europe, is aware of this role and is acting in an emphatically self-confident manner. Relations between Brazil and Germany, as well as Europe, can look back on a long and positive history. Nevertheless, it is hard to shake off the feeling that the two sides have grown apart or become estranged. It remains to be hoped that European voices are right and that the strategic association agreement between the South American economic bloc Mercosul and the EU is not "dead" after all.

IMAGO / Le Pictorium

New president with an absolute majority

Senegal has great expectations of Bassirou Diomaye Faye

Senegal has elected a new president: Political newcomer Bassirou Diomaye Faye will be the country's youngest president to date. He was the strong favourite in this election and, according to provisional figures, won 57% of the votes. This election result represents a dream come true for the young Senegalese. A man of the people, without the potentially burdensome vita of an experienced politician, has now been entrusted with the fate of the country for the next five years. Faye's programme stands for a replacement of the establishment, more opportunities for young people and social and economic inclusion. After the election, the vision will now meet political reality.

KAS / Ulf Laessing

Niger dumps the West

Turning to Russia and Iran

Niger has reopened a key migrant transit route to North Africa, abandoning a deal with the European Union sealed in 2015 which had curbed migration to Libya and Europa. Niger’s new military ruler also ended military cooperation with the United States, bolstering ties instead with new partners from Russia to Iran and Turkey. Niger was until a putsch in July the Weste’s most important Sahel ally but has since then largely abandoned Europe, which has refused to recognise the new rulers. Especially France has struggled to adjust to the new realities, rejecting the putschists and pressuring the European Union not to engage with Niamey after the ouster of elected President Mohamed Bazoum. The German government has been pretty much paralysed over how to deal with Niger, with the foreign ministry following France’s hardline lead, while the defence and economic cooperation ministries have opted for a more pragmatic approach fearing Russia will exploit the West’s retreat. Now Europe pays the price of its boycott and will have to cope with more migration.

IMAGO / ABACAPRESS

Javier Milei's presidency in Argentina

100 eventful days

On December 10, 2023, libertarian Javier Milei took office as President of Argentina. The anti-system politician was able to assert himself against the traditional political forces and followed up his campaign promises with deeds immediately after being sworn in. After 100 days in power, the panorama is complex in every respect: the problems of governance without majorities in parliament are evident, and despite slow successes in the fight against inflation, the economic challenges remain enormous. Critics fear an explosion in poverty as well as social unrest.

Adobe Stock / PX Media

Senegal in election mood

A path with hurdles

With a delay of one month, the presidential election in Senegal will now take place on 24 March 2024. The original date (25.02.2024) was annulled by decree by President Macky Sall just a few hours before the start of the election campaign. This brings not only a nerve-wracking process to a temporary end, but also one of the most serious domestic political crises the country has experienced in a long time. Amidst all the discussions about the election date, only one thing remained the same, namely the list of possible successors of Macky Sall. In its decision, the Constitutional Council stipulated that all originally validated candidates can stand for election. This report explains which are the most promising candidates and what political programme they stand for.

Portugal faces difficult formation of government

Results of the early parliamentary elections in Portugal

Change of power in Portugal: the centre-right electoral alliance Aliança Democrática (AD) wins by a small margin ahead of the Socialists, who have not only lost their absolute majority after losing a third of their seats but are now only the second strongest force in the Assembleia da República. The weakness of the Socialists directly benefited the right-wing populist Chega party, which quadrupled its result compared to the 2024 elections. Neither the right-wing nor the left-wing camp can unite a majority. The most likely option at present is the formation of a minority government under PSD leader Luis Montenegro.

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About this series

The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.