Publications

Assessment of the Knesset Election Results

One Winner, Many Losers

For months, Israelis had been talking about one thing above all else: Election Day. The fierce campaign revolved around political responsibility for the Hamas attack of October 7, the prospect of mandatory military service for the ultra-Orthodox, the war against Iran, and for some, even the future of Israeli democracy. Nearly 78 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots. The result is surprising.

America Before the Election: The Final Votes Will Decide

Millions of Americans have already voted, while Republicans and Democrats are vying for the remaining votes. With just a few days to go before the midterm elections, the race for a majority is focused on a manageable number of states and congressional districts. The Democrats are entering the final stretch with a more favorable outlook for the House of Representatives; in the Senate, several paths to a majority remain open. Donald Trump is a key figure for both parties. However, what will be decisive is how national sentiment, the candidates' personal profiles, and local mobilization translate into votes on November 3.

U.S. Midterms 2026: From Campaign Messages to the Ballot Box

Before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, Republicans and Democrats are pursuing different paths to securing a majority. Republicans are campaigning on tax relief measures while warning voters about the consequences of their political opponents' policies. Democrats, meanwhile, are linking rising living costs to their call for stronger oversight and accountability in Washington. At the same time, allegations of corruption and conflicts of interest are becoming more prominent in several closely contested races. Both parties face the same challenge: reaching voters who often engage with politics only casually. As campaigning increasingly takes place through television advertisements, short-form videos, and AI-generated search results, election strategies are evolving as well.

Reform of sexual offences legislation: Urgent introduction of the ‘Yes Means Yes’ model

On women’s right to sexual self-determination

The Giesèle Pelicot case has accelerated the political and social debate in France regarding the introduction of the so-called ‘Yes Means Yes’ model, under which only explicit consent to a sexual act is regarded as the criterion for consensuality. In Germany, the so-called ‘No Means No’ model is currently applied: It is not the absence of consent that constitutes the criterion for rape, but solely explicit opposition to a sexual act. Legally, this is governed by Section 177 of the Criminal Code.

Historic Comeback in Brazil: Lula Elected President for a Fourth Term

Mobilization on the streets and social media turns the tide. But a chaotic election day, polarization and Brazil’s rightward shift remain.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva turned the Brazilian presidential election around in a historic comeback, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.79 per cent of the vote. Key factors in his victory were the reorganisation of his campaign, widespread social mobilisation and his focus on defending democracy. Nevertheless, his victory does not mark a shift to the left: Brazil remains deeply polarised and Lula will have to govern with an even more conservative Congress.

Opposition as an Opportunity – Not Just for the PNL

Behind the Formation of Romania's New Government

Luca Niculescu is set to become Romania’s new Prime Minister with the support of, among others, the PSD, PNL, and UDMR. Following the vote, PNL will move into opposition, what seems as an opportunity both for the party itself and for Romania’s political system.

Who Finances the Battle for Congress?

Campaign Finance and Political Priorities in the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections

Just weeks before the 2026 midterm elections, hundreds of millions of dollars are flowing into the battle for control of Congress. Beyond candidates’ official campaign accounts, parties, super PACs, major donors, and interest groups are playing an increasingly influential role in shaping the political contest. The distribution of these funds provides valuable insight into which races are considered decisive for congressional majorities and which policy priorities attract the strongest financial support. At the same time, it highlights the complexity of the U.S. campaign finance system, where influence depends not only on the amount of money available but also on who controls its deployment. Examining campaign finance therefore adds an important dimension to the analysis of the 2026 congressional elections, complementing polling data and electoral projections.

Why extremism requires new categories and prevention approaches.

At the intersection of conspiracy ideologies, extremism, and violence – Hybrid worldviews are transforming radicalization processes and security requirements

Extremist violence is evolving: ideologies are blending, traditional categories are becoming less distinct, and new hybrid milieus are emerging. The article examines how bridging narratives connect diverse extremist currents and the challenges this poses for security agencies, researchers, and prevention efforts. It highlights the necessity of cross-phenomenon analytical approaches and flexible prevention structures for the early detection of future radicalization dynamics.

17 October: France’s Outburst of Anger

Violence, the State, and the Election Campaign

The events of 17 October 2026 mark a turning point in France’s political debate just months ahead of the 2027 presidential election. While the protests were originally intended to draw attention to social and economic grievances, the riots and their consequences have since come to dominate the political discourse. At the centre of the debate are three closely interconnected issues: the causes of the violence and the actors responsible for it; the shortcomings in anticipation and crowd-control management that have been acknowledged by the government and security authorities themselves; and the political instrumentalisation of the events in the run-up to the presidential election. The discussion is therefore no longer focused solely on the responsibility of the perpetrators of violence, but increasingly also on the state's capacity to act and on the competing political interpretations of the crisis.

The Physical Race for AI

How Control over Electricity, Water, and Critical Minerals Is Becoming a Determinant of AI Leadership

The global race for AI leadership is often framed as a competition for technological innovation, yet it increasingly depends on access to physical resources. Growing demand for data centres is intensifying competition for electricity, grid capacity, water and critical minerals. For Germany and Europe, the challenge is no longer about innovation alone, but strategically ensuring the physical foundations that enable AI competitiveness and technological sovereignty.