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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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IMAGO / Newscom / Yonhap News

House specialty: lame duck?

Results of South Korea’s general election

South Korea elected a new parliament on April 10th. The numbers remain largely unchanged: the governing party fails in its hopes for changing conditions, the opposition gains a ‘supermajority’ to accelerate its own legislation, albeit only with combined forces, but does not win a two-thirds majority either. In the government we expect another change of guards, while the president - three years before the end of his term in office - is further weakened and already fighting a lame duck image.

Thomas Yoshimura
April 18, 2024
Country Reports

De-Risking, but where to?

The Emerging ASEAN countries as an alternative to China

The German economy should become more diversified. However, how and where such de-risking shall be implemented remains unclear. In search of suitable partners, both politics and business often turn their attention to the emerging economies of Southeast Asia. The dynamic growth of the so-called Emerging ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam) offers a seemingly promising alternative to the large neighbour China. However, a look at the economic data shows that the diversification potential in terms of Southeast Asia’s emerging markets is limited.

Dr. Denis Suarsana
April 18, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

Georgian own goal

The law on agents greets us every year: A controversial project is to be passed in the Georgian parliament at the second attempt

In March, the Georgian national soccer team's historic qualification for the European Championship in Germany briefly made us forget the deep rifts that have been running through the political landscape in Georgia for years. However, when the ruling Georgian Dream party pulled an agent law out of the drawer at the beginning of April, which had to be withdrawn last year after massive protests, the rifts are back, and they seem deeper than ever. At first glance, the erratic initiative, just a few months before the parliamentary elections in Georgia, seems like a classic own goal.

Stephan Malerius
April 17, 2024
Country Reports

Local elections in Poland 2024

Tailwind or setback for the new Tusk government?

Regional and local elections were held in Poland on 7 April 2024. The national-conservative party Law and Justice (PiS) had the best result with 34.4%. In second place was the liberal electoral alliance Civic Coalition (KO) with 30.6%, while the third place on the podium went to the centrist electoral committee Third Way (Trzecia Droga) with 14.3%. In total, the liberal democratic parties won just over 50% and will govern in most of Poland's 16 regions. In this sense, PiS lost this election, if by losing we mean losing power. PiS has no coalition capacity and in principle can only govern where it has won an absolute majority. Its shares in local government have decreased and that of KO has increased. But in terms of image, PiS won the elections.

David Gregosz, Dr. Piotr Womela
April 16, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / Hindustan Times

India's parliamentary elections 2024

The invincible against the disunited

When the world's biggest elections are held in India from 19 April to 1 June this year, two unequal opponents will be running against each other for the third time in a row. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), who is seeking his third consecutive term in office, will once again face Rahul Gandhi. Gandhi had always lost to Modi in his previous two attempts. While Narendra Modi has never lost an election in his political career, in which he has held high political office for 22 years without interruption, the opposite is true for Rahul Gandhi. He has never been a minister in a federal or state government and has not led his Congress party to victory in the parliamentary elections in two attempts (2014 and 2019). He also resigned as party leader after his defeat in 2019. Nevertheless, he remains the most well-known face and lynchpin of opposition politics. The following country report briefly explains how elections work in the world's largest democracy and examines the state of opposition politics, particularly with regard to the Congress Party, in the run-up to the 2024 parliamentary elections. It also analyses why the next Prime Minister of India is likely to be called Narendra Modi once again.

Elias Marini Schäfer
April 16, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / Xinhua

The new government of Senegal

Between vision and reality

On March 24, 2024, Senegal elected political newcomer Bassirou Diomaye Faye as its fifth president since the country's independence with an overwhelming majority. Less than 10 days later, on April 2, 2024, he was officially sworn in and immediately began forming a government. The new president announced a "rupture" - a "radical political change". What can we expect from the new government?

Caroline Hauptmann
April 12, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / SOPA Images

Local elections in Turkey

The national surprise of a local vote

Contrary to predictions, the Turkish local elections have proved to be a success for the opposition. The largest opposition party CHP in particular emerged as the winner. While both the ruling AK Party and the opposition are still caught up in a certain disbelief about the results in the first 48 hours afterwards, the country report provides background information, summarizes the results and discusses possible consequences.

Walter Glos, Bruno Hamm-Pütt
April 3, 2024
Country Reports
KAS / Maximilian Hedrich

The world is looking for Brazil

Why Europe would do well to meet Brazil on an equal footing

Brazil is preparing for the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro in November. Now the ninth largest economy in the world, Brazil is a key partner for Germany and Europe, is aware of this role and is acting in an emphatically self-confident manner. Relations between Brazil and Germany, as well as Europe, can look back on a long and positive history. Nevertheless, it is hard to shake off the feeling that the two sides have grown apart or become estranged. It remains to be hoped that European voices are right and that the strategic association agreement between the South American economic bloc Mercosul and the EU is not "dead" after all.

Maximilian Hedrich
April 2, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / Le Pictorium

New president with an absolute majority

Senegal has great expectations of Bassirou Diomaye Faye

Senegal has elected a new president: Political newcomer Bassirou Diomaye Faye will be the country's youngest president to date. He was the strong favourite in this election and, according to provisional figures, won 57% of the votes. This election result represents a dream come true for the young Senegalese. A man of the people, without the potentially burdensome vita of an experienced politician, has now been entrusted with the fate of the country for the next five years. Faye's programme stands for a replacement of the establishment, more opportunities for young people and social and economic inclusion. After the election, the vision will now meet political reality.

Caroline Hauptmann
March 26, 2024
Country Reports
KAS / Ulf Laessing

Niger dumps the West

Turning to Russia and Iran

Niger has reopened a key migrant transit route to North Africa, abandoning a deal with the European Union sealed in 2015 which had curbed migration to Libya and Europa. Niger’s new military ruler also ended military cooperation with the United States, bolstering ties instead with new partners from Russia to Iran and Turkey. Niger was until a putsch in July the Weste’s most important Sahel ally but has since then largely abandoned Europe, which has refused to recognise the new rulers. Especially France has struggled to adjust to the new realities, rejecting the putschists and pressuring the European Union not to engage with Niamey after the ouster of elected President Mohamed Bazoum. The German government has been pretty much paralysed over how to deal with Niger, with the foreign ministry following France’s hardline lead, while the defence and economic cooperation ministries have opted for a more pragmatic approach fearing Russia will exploit the West’s retreat. Now Europe pays the price of its boycott and will have to cope with more migration.

Ulf Laessing
March 22, 2024
Country Reports
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The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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