Comprehending the Lull: Recovering Niger’s North Tillabery

Policy brief prepared for:

Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Sahel Programme

By Hannah Rae Armstrong

What’s new: Niger’s North Tillabery, for years one of the Sahel’s deadliest zones as battles between Nigerien defense and security forces and the Islamic State Sahel Province tugged border communities into tit-for-tat hostilities, has experienced significantly lower levels of violence over the past year.

Why it’s relevant: An evolving combination of security and dialogue measures from Nigerien authorities has made real advances here, weakening ISS’ grip, strengthening border security, reducing intercommunal tensions, and helping internally displaced persons return. As rural clashes drag central Sahel states deeper into conflict, Niger’s approach in North Tillabery could present a vital new paradigm.

Introduction

            Between 2018 and 2021, Niger’s North Tillabery was one of the central Sahel’s deadliest zones, ensnared in an escalatory cycle of violence. The Sahelian Islamic State chapter, deftly exploiting local tensions and tapping into rural marginalization and neglect, put down roots there and ramped up recruitment.[1] State efforts to arrest the group’s advance performed feebly: dialogue efforts stalled, military campaigns backfired, and communities took up arms to defend themselves. Hundreds were killed and more than 100,000 displaced.  

            And then, in 2022, rare signs of recovery emerged. As attacks on civilians and defense and security forces (FDS) plummeted, defense forces seemed to perform better at protecting civilians without relying on communal proxies, and talks with insurgents began to bear fruit. In rural communes Banibangou and Inates, improved security conditions brought new hopes and efforts for IDPs to return home. As similarly embattled zones in the central Sahel mostly slide deeper into disorder, the apparent stabilization of North Tillabery, while still in early stages, merits a close, careful look. By analyzing the factors that have helped slow or arrest cycles of violence, this policy brief aims to illuminate pathways for preserving and consolidating real gains. Lessons learned could provide valuable guidance for authorities in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso as well as for foreign partners, as these seek to stabilize zones trapped in similar cycles.  

The full on the PDF version