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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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IMAGO / Xinhua

Regional normalisation – Syrian perspectives

Turkish and Arab attempts to establish a new foundation for their relationship with Syria are viewed with concern especially in areas outside of the regime’s control.

Both the Arab League and Turkey have initiated a process of normalizing ties with the Syrian regime: While the Arab track, led by Saudi Arabia, has received wide international attention and media coverage, in Syria itself the Turkish efforts are monitored much more closely due to Turkey’s active role in Syrian political and security affairs. Yet, as of now, none of the two initiatives have achieved any significant progress, which can mainly be attribute to the Assad regime’s unwillingness to make any concessions. Nonetheless, non-state actors in Northern Syria remain apprehensive. Furthermore, amidst an ever-worsening economic crisis in Syria, unrest and demonstrations are also flawing up in regime-held territories.

Michael Bauer, Anne-Sophie Bauer
September 13, 2023
Country Reports
Seksan Rochanametakul

Thailand's New Government - Coalition of Arch Enemies Opposes Political Change

The priorities of the new head of government, Srettha Thavisin, are in the economic sphere, also for Thailand's foreign policy

The May 14 parliamentary elections in Thailand were deemed a success for the democratic process by all observers, with the Electoral Commission recognizing a large victory for the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP), which became the largest faction in the House of Representatives. The unelected Senate – appointed by the former military government – prevented the MFP from forming a government, while the Constitutional Court suspended its leader Pita Limcharoenrat over an alleged breach of election rules. The outcome of the 2023 electoral cycle reflects the balance of power in Thailand under the current constitution, under which conservative elites and the military continue to exert control over the political process in order to protect their interests. This election demonstrates what appears to be their collective goal -- maintain control over political outcomes, while creating enough democratic space to ensure that Thailand saves face internationally and its citizens refrain from demonstrating in the streets. 

Dr. Céline-Agathe Caro, Sarita Piyawongrungruang
September 11, 2023
Country Reports
Vince Musi / The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

30 years of the Oslo Accords 

Will there be a new upheaval in the Middle East Conflict? 

30 years after the historic handshake between Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat in the garden of the White House in Washington, D.C., the peace process has come to a standstill; the political majorities in Israel and an escalating spiral of violence in the Palestinian Territories put hope of a diplomatic solution with two coexisting states into the distant future. Rather, after 30 years of the Oslo system, the question arises: How much longer will these agreements be viable? 

Steven Höfner, Franziska Schneider
September 11, 2023
Country Reports
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

Russia's Demographic Policy in the Context of the War

Long-term challenges for the Russian Federation

This country report explores the demographic policies of Russia in the context of the war in Ukraine. It traces Russia's demographic changes over the past century, from the Tsarist era to the present Russian Federation, and discusses the various measures the government has taken to address the demographic challenges, especially the declining birth rate. The conflict with Ukraine has introduced additional challenges, including the loss of life and mass migrations. While government initiatives have shown some positive results, the demographic situation remains complex and precarious, with regional disparities, urbanization, and external factors influencing the population dynamics.

Dr. Thomas Kunze, Christopher Hess, Leonardo Salvador
September 6, 2023
Country Reports
Andreas Klein/KAS

Mit Erfahrung und Optimismus in die Zukunft

Tharman Shanmugaratnam zum neunten Präsidenten der Republik Singapur gewählt

Mit einem überzeugenden Ergebnis von 70,4 Prozent ist der langjährige Finanzminister und Parlamentsabgeordnete Tharman Shanmugaratnam am 1. September zum neunten Staatspräsident Singapurs seit der Unabhängigkeit im Jahr 1965 gewählt worden. Nach einem kurzen Wahlkampf von nicht einmal zehn Tagen setzte er sich in der Wahl, zu der 2,7 Millionen Singapurer und Singapurerinnen aufgerufen waren, deutlich gegen die beiden Mitbewerber Tan Kin Lian und Ng Kok Song durch. Shanmugaratnam tritt die Nachfolge von Präsidentin Halimah Yacob an, die als erste Frau und Muslima in der 58jährigen Geschichte der Inselrepublik von 2017 bis 2023 als Staatsoberhaupt diente. Die vor wenigen Tagen 69 Jahre alt gewordene Staatspräsidentin, ehemalige Parlamentssprecherin und Ministerin hatte am 29. Mai 2023 angekündigt, keine zweite Amtszeit anzustreben, sondern in den politischen Ruhestand überzugehen.

Andreas Klein, Jan Kliem, Felix Deuster
September 5, 2023
Country Reports
wikimedia/ Government of India

India's G20 Presidency 

Hugs and a voice for all

On 9 and 10 September, the G20 summit will take place in New Delhi. But what are the prospects for concrete substantive breakthroughs on key issues such as the reform processes of multilateral organisations? And how can India's G20 presidency be assessed in times of deeply divided G20 member states? The following country report explores these questions and also sheds light on the extent to which Prime Minister Modi's government has seamlessly linked the foreign policy agenda of the G20 with its domestic political ambitions.

Elias Marini Schäfer, Dr. Adrian Haack
September 5, 2023
Country Reports
Foco Uy / Gaston Brito

Uruguay starts election marathon

Uncertain outcome despite stable government polls

Even though Luis Lacalle Pou’s government will remain in office for another year and a half, the political landscape of Uruguay is already gearing up for the upcoming elections next year. With the possibility that the incumbent from the Partido Nacional may not seek re-election, the current ruling party is grappling with the selection of potential candidates. Nevertheless, more and more aspirants from the other parties are also emerging for the forthcoming marathon election campaign. Despite the government's steady approval ratings and favorable economic indicators, the electoral contest remains wide open.

Sebastian Grundberger, Kristin Langguth
September 1, 2023
Country Reports
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

BRICS invites Argentina in troubled times

BRICS Group welcomes admission of South American country

During the XV BRICS Summit held in South Africa, the group took a significant step by deciding to extend the alliance to include Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on January 1, 2024. The Argentinian government formally applied for a membership in 2022, but the decision came as an unexpected development, especially considering the recent absence of consensus within the group regarding potential expansion. Consequently, Argentina refrained from sending any delegates to the Johannesburg summit. This strategic maneuver adds an unexpected dimension, as the discourse around BRICS membership coincides with the presidential election campaign, thereby underscoring the country's pronounced political polarization, even concerning foreign policy matters.

Susanne Käss
September 1, 2023
Country Reports
IMAGO / APAimages

The Jordanian Paradox

Participation and control

Jordan wants to enable more political participation and strengthen parliamentarism. The legal course has been set. At the same time, the scope for critical expression of opinion is narrowing, most recently as a result of a new law to combat cybercrime. But the country's modernization can only succeed if the state has confidence in its citizens.

Dr. Edmund Ratka
August 30, 2023
Country Reports
Adobe Stock / UPI Photo

The Gulf goes BRICS

Gulf states form the core of the latest BRICS expansion

In a surprising expansion, three states from the Gulf region are now part of the BRICS group of states. The inclusion of Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is not a watershed event, but follows an already familiar pattern: middle powers in the Gulf and elsewhere strengthen their international position in the context of global great power rivalries. While Riyadh and Abu Dhabi seek to diversify their foreign policy relations, the regime in Tehran is once again trying to break through its international isolation. All three Gulf states are hoping for economic stimulus as well as a gain in power. The traditional BRICS agenda of establishing an alternative global financial and monetary system could also gain new momentum with three important energy exporters as new members.

Philipp Dienstbier
August 30, 2023
Country Reports
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The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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