Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 1 – Status Quo

Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 2 – Europe en Marche

Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 3 – United Radicals

Summary and latest developments

• Parties belonging to the EPP family are (in national polls) the strongest political family in 12 (-1 compared with the last barometer) countries . The Socialist family is leading in 6 (+1), the Liberal family in 4 (+1) countries,the Eurosceptic Conservatives in 2 (-2), parties affiliated to the Green/EFA-Group in 1 (+1) country. In France and Latvia, unaffiliated movements /parties are stronger than any party family, in Italy the far-right is the strongest political family.
• If one looks only at the political colour of the strongest political force (and not the entire party family), an EPP party is leading in 10 countries, the Socialists in 8, the ALDE in 4, the ECR in 3 each, Greens, independents and right-wing populists in one each
• In many countries, the advantage of the leading political family in the opinion polls is very slim (France, Spain, Slovakia, Finland, Belgium, Lithuania).
• The EPP familiy enjoys a relatively strong support in the opinion polls (above 30%) in Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Austria, Croatia, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Malta and Cyprus
• In the European Council, 9 (+1) Heads of State and Government belong to the EPP family, 8 to the Liberals, 5 to the Socialists/Social Democrats, 2 to the Eurosceptic Conservatives, one to the European Left. 3 (-1) are formally independent

Outlook on the EP elections in 2019

Introductory remarks:

• Preferences expressed in national opinion polls are not necessarily identical with voting preferences in EP elections
• A low turnout (or a different mobilisation rate among competing parties) may have a strong impact
• The prominence of the „Spitzenkandidat“/national top candidates may influence voter preferences

With caution, the following statements can be made:

• Despite (significant) losses in bigger member states, the EPP would likely remain the strongest political family (174-195 seats) in the EP (24.7%-27.7% of seats)
• In relative terms, the share of the EPP group (currently 28.9% of the seats) would only moderately be reduced (-1.2% up to -4.2%), as the EPP Group would suffer less from the departure of the (likely) British MEPs than other political groups (in comparison the S&D would be at 19%, down from 25%)
• Parties of the far-right (ENF) and the far-left (GUE/NGL) would have a potential of more than 19-20% of the seats, together with a potential new group headed by the 5-Star-movement even around 23-24%. It is still unclear where the 5-Star-Movement will position itself. Together, the far-right, the far-left, a group led by the 5-Star-Movement and the Eurosceptic ECR could gather up to 32% of the seats.
• A coalition of EPP and S&D would not have a majority on its own but would need a third partner
• Depending on the scenario, 64-72% of MEPs would continue to belong to moderate political groups (EPP, S&D, Liberals+Macron-led movement („Europe en Marche“), Greens)
• In comparison to the previous barometer the EPP and the Greens with a few seats less (back to the level of autumn 2018), minimal increase for the S&D-Group. The EPP would still clearly remain the biggest group. Significant increase for the „unaffiliated“ (due to the Yellow Vest movement in France) and the „various far-right“