2024 US Elections

Content

1. Domestic issues dominate the election campaign

2. The congressional majority is equally important

3. Some regions are particularly at the centre of the election campaign

4. We are following the US election campaign from many perspectives

5. Publications, events and media contributions on the topic

Domestic issues dominate the election campaign

For a long time, it seemed the 2024 presidential election would mirror the one from four years ago, particularly with the main contenders: Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Both secured enough votes in the primaries. Donald Trump was officially confirmed as the Republican candidate at the party convention. The Democrats, however, faced an unexpected turn of events: after a shaky performance in a televised debate raised doubts about Biden’s capabilities, he ended his candidacy in July.

President Biden nominated Vice President Kamala Harris as the new candidate. Leading Democrats followed suit, and Harris easily secured the necessary delegate votes for the nomination. For her, it is about presenting herself as an independent candidate while also highlighting the successes of the Biden-Harris administration, such as extensive reform laws and strong economic performance. Harris supports abortion rights, an important campaign issue. At the same time, she would have to answer for the situation on the southern border, since immigration policy is part of her area of responsibility.

For Donald Trump, the goal is to overcome the stigma of his defeat four years ago. To him, the election defeat was a fraud. He remains committed to an “America First” policy, aimed at safeguarding America’s borders and enhancing the country’s independence. This approach involves scrutinizing foreign aid to other nations and questioning alliances like NATO. Trump’s election campaign enjoys unwavering support from a loyal base, but there are also many Americans who openly oppose him.

The congressional majority is equally important – even in foreign policy matters

Even though the presidential election attracts the most international attention, a new Congress will also be elected in November, and the majorities there are equally crucial. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for election, along with one-third of the 100 Senate seats. Currently, the Republicans hold a majority in the House of Representatives, while the Democrats lead in the Senate. However, both majorities are slim.

Before this election, a relatively large number of members of Congress announced that they would not seek re-election. Given the significant advantage to incumbents, especially in the House of Representatives, this could potentially alter the composition of Congress and the dynamics within individual party groups. Like the presidential election, candidates are chosen through primaries, which are decisions of direction for the party.

Congress plays a pivotal role in U.S. legislation, particularly in budgetary matters. The Senate must confirm crucial personnel decisions made by the President. Congress can significantly impact foreign policy decisions, even contrary to the President’s preferences; the intense debate over additional aid for Ukraine demonstrated that.

Some regions are particularly at the centre of the election campaign

Elections are held throughout the USA; however, many regions are politically aligned with one party, making it unlikely that majorities will change there. Election observers focus on so-called ‘swing states,’ which are states where both parties have a chance of winning. In this year’s elections, these states primarily include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.”

Arizona holds a prominent position in the 2024 election for several reasons: The state is located on the border with Mexico, and border security is a major issue in the campaign. Additionally, the Arizona Supreme Court recently enacted a controversial, comprehensive abortion ban—an important campaign topic. With incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema not seeking re-election, both parties are eager to secure the Senate seat.

November 5 is not only election day for the federal level: Elections are held for positions at all political levels, for example the governors in eleven federal states and two territories.

We are following the US election campaign from many perspectives

The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung places great importance on the transatlantic partnership, NATO, and cooperation with the United States as crucial guarantees for Europe’s security. We closely monitor the election campaign and this year’s election outcomes, analyzing developments with the assistance of American and European experts. Our U.S. office is organizing dialogue programs and observation trips involving German experts and politicians to foster a deeper understanding of the political process. Additionally, educational, and online events will be available.