Russia’s war against Ukraine has not only shaken the European security order but also triggered geopolitical dynamics with direct implications for East Asia. Amidst deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, estimates suggest that up to 40 per cent of the artillery ammunition used by Russia now originates from North Korea, while Pyongyang increasingly releases footage of its latest weapon systems. Military support for Russia provides the North Korean regime not only with economic revenues and political recognition, but potentially also with access to sensitive military technologies. The parallel advances in its satellite programme, missile technology, and maritime capabilities suggest that technological transfers in exchange for arms and ammunition deliveries are becoming increasingly plausible. Consequently, the partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang could extend beyond a short-term pragmatic arrangement and fundamentally transform North Korea’s military capabilities in the long term.
North Korea’s efforts to develop nuclear-powered submarines are therefore of particular importance. The central question is to what extent potential Russian technology transfers could enhance Pyongyang’s nuclear second-strike capabilities. The development of nuclear-powered submarines equipped with ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads would significantly increase the survivability of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and fundamentally alter the existing deterrence architecture on the Korean Peninsula. A credible sea-based second-strike capability could not only reduce North Korea’s vulnerability but also place increased pressure on US security guarantees towards South Korea.
Limiting military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is therefore in the interest not only of regional actors but also of Europe. Further technology transfers could destabilize the already tense security situation in East Asia in the long term and create additional security challenges. The cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang highlights the increasingly interconnected security dynamics of Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
Closer security cooperation between European countries, South Korea, and Japan could therefore help counter these developments and strengthen their collective ability to deter authoritarian threats. Cooperation in areas such as air defence and long-range weapons could prove strategically significant. The Russia-North Korea partnership underscores that an effective European security policy must increasingly take security developments in the Indo-Pacific into account.
Read the entire Monitor: ‘Nordkoreas strategischer Aufstieg – Die sicherheitspolitischen Folgen der russisch-nordkoreanischer Militärkooperation’ here. Please note, to date this paper is only available in German.
