The paper makes the following recommendations for multilateral actors:
• Plan for strategic continuity rather than political transformation: changes in leadership or internal power dynamics will not fundamentally alter Iran’s national security priorities. Strategies premised on the collapse of the current system or a rapid behavioural shift risk strengthening hardline actors. External efforts could instead focus on recognising that recent developments have not fundamentally altered. Tehran’s cost-benefit calculations within the parameters of enduring strategic continuity.
• Replace cycles of military coercion with a long-term strategic framework: sanctions, targeted strikes and short-lived diplomatic interventions have generated uncertain outcomes and instability. A more sustainable approach requires a clear articulation of what an agreement with Iran could entail, including exploring whether acceptable levels of nuclear capability under safeguards is feasible in the international community, mechanisms to manage regional competition and incentives or consequences linked to spoiler behaviour, and must acknowledge that recent actions have reduced confidence in diplomatic off-ramps and formal agreements.
• Support domestically driven reform rather than external destabilisation: attempts to influence Iranian politics from outside impact the civilian population, feed nationalist reflexes, marginalise pragmatic voices and provide hardliners with a stronger claim to legitimacy. Engagement should therefore prioritise societal linkages and preserve channels that benefit the middle class and reform-minded constituencies.
• Preserve and modernise the nuclear diplomacy toolbox: Despite a more constrained and credibility-challenged diplomatic environment, engagement remains necessary and negotiations should remain focused on the nuclear file, underpinned by verifiable and sequenced sanctions relief that offers tangible benefits for compliance. Future arrangements will need to incorporate innovative oversight models suited to a dispersed Iranian nuclear infrastructure, while ensuring ongoing monitoring by and cooperation with the IAEA.
• Embed Iran policy within a broader regional nuclear framework: regional proliferation pressures cannot be addressed by focusing solely on Iran. Saudi ambitions in fuel cycle capabilities, combined with Israel’s undeclared arsenal and strike posture, shape Tehran’s threat perceptions and strategic decisions.
• Reinforce defence diplomacy and crisis-prevention mechanisms: with so many potential flashpoints in Iran’s security environment, pursuing isolation without communication increases the risk of miscalculation, especially in interactions involving Israel. Structured defence diplomacy, crisis communication channels and coordinated regional confidence-building measures are necessary to prevent further escalations, even as trust in diplomatic mechanisms has been affected.
