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Länderberichte

Corona Update: USA (11) – aktuelle Studien, Analysen und Kommentare

von Sabine Murphy, Jeanene Lairo, Elmar Sulk, Syreta Haggray, Dirk Hegen, Paul Linnarz

Für die Zeit vom 5. bis 11. Juni 2020

Die Corona-Krise hat über die erheblichen gesundheitlichen Risiken und Folgen hinaus weitreichende Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft, Sicherheit, Forschung, Innen- und Außenpolitik sowie das gesell-schaftliche Leben in den Vereinigten Staaten. Namhafte US-amerikanische Think Tanks und Experten setzen sich intensiv mit den unterschiedlichen Aspekten und Herausforderungen dieser in ihrem Um-fang und ihrer Schnelligkeit beispiellosen Krise auseinander. Für einen Überblick über den aktuellen Stand der Diskussion stellt das KAS-Auslandsbüro USA mit Sitz in Washington D.C. wöchentlich eine Auswahl an Studien, Analysen und Kommentaren jeweils mit Links zu den Beiträgen zusammen.

“The US and Europe have addressed COVID unemployment in divergent ways: The differences are revealing”

Quelle: Atlantic Council (June 8, 2020)

Hung Tran, nonresident senior fellow

In this blog, the author examines the differences in responses to the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic on both sides of the Atlantic. The United States has provided unemployment insurance for an extended time to mitigate the financial shock of unemployment. Europe on the other hand, instituted “short-time work” following the German example of keeping employees employed while reducing hours and pay.

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“A New Policy Toolkit Is Needed as Countries Exit COVID-19 Lockdowns”

Quelle: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE, June 2020)

Olivier Blanchard, senior fellow, et al. 

This policy brief from the Peterson Institute explores how policies toward supporting recovery can be designed, with particular emphasis on Europe and the United States. Section I briefly describes the measures that were taken to accompany the lockdown. Section II presents the protection and reallocation architecture that should underlie the new measures, namely a combination of unemployment benefits to help workers with focus on adjusting job retention schemes, wage subsidies and partially guaranteed loans to help firms, and a process-light restructuring of legacy debts.

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“As Putin’s Regime Stifles the State, the Pandemic Shows the Cost”

Quelle: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP, June 8, 2020)

Nathaniel Reynolds, non-resident scholar

In this commentary, the author examines the state of Putin’s government and Russian politics in the midst of constitutional changes and the challenges brought on by the coronavirus. Reynolds claims that the pandemic undermines “the Kremlin’s carefully cultivated image of Russia as a strong state.”


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“As Iran redeploys amid COVID-19, Russia is filling the vacuum in eastern Syria”

Quelle: Middle East Institute (MEI, June 5, 2020)

Nick Grinstead, non-resident scholar

According to the author, in Syria, Russia reacted to the reports of coronavirus cases among pro-Iranian militias by ordering both Russian troops and Syrian regime units supported by Russia to separate from Iranian militias in mid-March, in a move that demonstrated how seriously Russia took the consequences of an outbreak among pro-government fighters and soldiers in Syria at a time when the Syrian government was still denying the existence of cases in the country. "Assuming the reports are true, the move to insulate pro-Russian Syrian units demonstrates a degree of foresight by Russia, with the assumption that having un- or less-infected units post-COVID-19 would be an advantage," says the author in his analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the strategic situation in Syria.

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“You can’t fight pandemics without power—electric power”

Quelle: Brookings Institution (June 5, 2020)

Rob Fetter, Senior Policy Associate - Energy Access Project, Duke University, et.al.

This article discusses the importance of electricity for effective responses to COVID-19 and other diseases in sub-Saharan Africa. The authors argue that diagnostic tests for COVID-19, disease surveillance, and ultimately vaccines all rely on a reliable electricity supply. Furthermore, the authors show that “off-grid electricity systems are forecast to be the low-cost electricity solution for more than 70 percent of sub-Saharan rural people currently lacking access.” The article concludes that “remedying electricity access in health facilities in response to COVID-19 brings us a step closer to ending the vicious cycle of panic and neglect in preventing deadly diseases.”

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"The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic”

Quelle: Nature (June 8, 2020)

Solomon Hsiang, Daniel Allen, Goldman School of Public Policy, UC Berkeley, et al.

This article preview compiles data on over 1,700 local, regional, and national non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight the coronavirus in localities in the United States and five other nations. The study finds that anti-contagion policies had significantly slowed viral growth. The authors estimate that “across these six countries, interventions prevented or delayed on the order of 62 million confirmed cases, corresponding to averting roughly 530 million total infections.” According to the authors, these “findings may help inform whether or when these policies should be deployed, intensified, or lifted, and they can support decision-making in the other 180+ countries where COVID-19 has been reported.”

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„Federal COVID-19 Provider Relief Funds: Following the Money”

Quelle: The Urban Institute (June 10, 2020)

Teresa A. Coughlin, senior fellow, et al.

Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES) on March 27, followed by the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) on April 24. Yet, according to the authors, more than two months after the CARES Act was passed, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) had distributed less than half the emergency aid, a delay that prompted an urgent bipartisan inquiry from Senate and House leaders made on June 3 to HHS Secretary Alex Azar. On June 9, HHS announced new relief fund distributions totaling $25 billion. "Even with these new distributions, 35 percent of the aid remains unallocated," emphasize the authors in this analysis.

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„Youth or consequences: Put youth at the center of COVID-19 recovery“

Quelle: The Brookings Institution (June 8, 2020)

Patrick Fine, Chief Executive Officer - FHI 360, et al.

Fine et al. state the case, in their article, for engaging youth as an integral element of the COVID-19 of a broader recovery strategy as they bear the brunt of the global economic and social crises it has unleashed. According to the authors, it is now more important than ever to invest in our youth and lever resources prioritizing education, civic engagement and employment for future generations.

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“Civic Capital and Social Distancing during the COVID-19 Pandemic”

Quelle: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER, released June 7, 2020)

John M. Barrios, The University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, et.al.

This paper links social distancing behavior to the concept of civic capital. Using mobile phone and survey data it shows that early in the pandemic “voluntary social distancing was higher when individuals exhibit a higher sense of civic duty.” The authors studied U.S. individuals, U.S. counties, and European regions and conclude that after “U.S. states began re-opening, social distancing remained more prevalent in high civic capital counties.” In summary, the working paper points to the importance of civic capital in designing public policy responses to pandemics.

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“Preparing for Cyberattacks and Technical Problems During the Pandemic: A Guide for Election Officials”

Quelle: Brennan Center for Justice (June 5, 2020)

Edgardo Cortes, Election Security Advisor, Democracy, et al.

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. is preparing for elections in November. This is proving more challenging than ever as election officials must consider expanding safe voting options such as mail ballots. At the same time, they must maintain in-person voting options which can increase vulnerability to technical malfunctions. Read the Brennan Center’s latest report on what these scenarios might look like and how to prepare for them.

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„THE STATE OF THE NATION: A 50-STATE COVID-19 SURVEY REPORT #4“

Quelle: Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University (June 8, 2020) 

Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University, et al. 

According to the latest results from an ongoing survey of Americans’ opinions about the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans’ trust is fraying in their institutions’ ability to respond — in light of the recent protests, especially with regard to the police, in whom trust has fallen by 8% since April. However, confidence in medical professionals and scientists remains high. There are significant differences among age groups, as well. The report is part of a joint project of four universities ("The COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding the Public’s Policy Preferences Across States").

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Weitere Kurzbeiträge:

“Breaking down the G20 COVID-19 Fiscal Response: May 2020 Update”

Quelle: CSIS (June 5, 2020)

Stephanie Segal, senior fellow; Dylan Gerstel, research assistant

The CSIS Economics Program has been analyzing and categorizing major fiscal actions taken by G20 countries to respond to the economic shock due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The updated data as of May 29 show several key trends, among them: CSIS estimates (1) fiscal support from G20 countries now exceeds 10 percent of 2019 G20 GDP; (2) Emerging market (EM) economies continue to boost spending but still lag advanced economy (AE) peers by a wide margin; and (3) G20 loan guarantee frameworks exceed $2 trillion.

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“Constitutionally, Religious Gatherings Must Enjoy the Same Rights As Protest Gatherings”

Quelle: Cato Institute (June 8, 2020)

Walter Olson, senior fellow

The author in the article argues that religious gatherings should be granted the same rights as was given in California and other states to protesters to assemble in large numbers to protest the death of George Floyd. The author reminds of the Supreme Court decision from May 29, where a closely divided U.S. Supreme Court refused, out of health concerns, to order California to lift its restrictions on church services that have more than 100 attendees or fill more than 25 percent of building capacity.

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“The Coronavirus Crisis Is Worsening Racial Inequality”

Quelle: Center for American Progress
(CAP, June 10, 2020)

Connor Maxwell, senior policy analyst

For his column the author examined new U.S. Census Bureau data to estimate economic and social effects of the coronavirus pandemic on American households. He found a great disparity in the effects on white, Asian, black and Hispanic Americans. According to Maxwell’s findings, communities of color are suffering in much higher numbers not only from COVID-19, but also from economic hardship, like lost household income, inability to pay rent and food insecurity.

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“Tribalism comes for pandemic science: Can our polarized country act on provisional knowledge?”
Quelle: American Enterprise Institute (June 5, 2020)


Author: Yuval Levin, Director for Social, Cultural, and Constitutional Studies

In the Op-Ed the author describes how the novel virus has forced policymakers to respond to the pandemic “on the fly.” He argues that because our society is so polarized “the response to provisional assessments of incomplete evidence quickly rigidify as they transformed into tribal markers and then cultural weapons.” What he calls “polarized hypocrisy” he then compares and contrasts the criticism towards the protesters, who objected the stay-home orders, with the support expressed for the gatherings in protest of George Floyd’s death.

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Für die aktuellen Zahlen zur Corona-Krise in den USA:

The Centers for Disease Control:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Johns Hopkins University:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The New York Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
 

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Paul Linnarz

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Leiter des Auslandsbüros in Washington, D.C.

Paul.Linnarz@kas.de + 1 202 464 5840
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Die Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung ist in rund 80 Ländern auf fünf Kontinenten mit einem eigenen Büro vertreten. Die Auslandsmitarbeiter vor Ort können aus erster Hand über aktuelle Ereignisse und langfristige Entwicklungen in ihrem Einsatzland berichten. In den „Länderberichten“ bieten sie den Nutzern der Webseite der Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung exklusiv Analysen, Hintergrundinformationen und Einschätzungen.