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Facts and Findings

Security alliance AUKUS

A tectonic shift in the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific?

Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States of America are creating the basis for a new powerful naval power in the Pacific. It can permanently change the balance of power between China and the USA and their Western allies in the Indo-Pacific region. The construction of nuclear-powered attack submarines and the stationing of American and British submarines in Australian harbours will significantly increase the military deterrent potential of the three Western allies. How will the agreement be implemented in practice and what significance does it have for Europe?

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With the AUKUS security agreement, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States of America are creating the basis for a new powerful naval power in the Pacific that can permanently change the balance of power between China and the USA and their Western allies in the increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region. The joint development and construction of nuclear-powered attack submarines and the rotating deployment of American and British submarines in Australian harbours will rapidly and significantly increase the military deterrent potential of the three Western allies in the region. The results of the model calculations show that the introduction of an allowance could significantly reduce the financial burden on households. An allowance of 750 euros per month would reduce the financial burden on employees subject to social security contributions by an average of 48 to 142 euros per month, depending on how it is designed.

The agreement is also about comprehensive cooperation in the areas of security, reconnaissance, technology exchange and interoperability of armed forces, as well as the development of future technologies such as artificial intelligence, hypersonic missiles and quantum technologies. Europe currently has little to contribute militarily to security in the Indo-Pacific. The submarine deal between Australia and France, which was cancelled due to the AUCUS agreement, has once again made this clear.

Nevertheless, the new security alliance is also of strategic importance for Europe: free and open sea lanes, compliance with a rules-based order and international law are among the main objectives of the EU strategy in the Indo-Pacific. Europe shares these goals with the AUCUS states. The EU and Germany should further strengthen their economic, political and diplomatic engagement in the region in order to avoid being sidelined geopolitically in the long term.

How the security agreement is to be implemented in practice, what impact it will have on the military balance of power in the Indo-Pacific and what this means for Europe and Germany can be read here in the analysis "Sicherheitsbündnis AUKUS – eine tektonische Verschiebung des strategischen Gleichgewichts im Indopazifik?" as a PDF.

This publication is only available in German.

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Jan Senkyr

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Advisor Foreign and Security Policy

jan.senkyr@kas.de +49 30 26996-3936

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About this series

The series informs in a concentrated form about important positions of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung on current topics. The individual issues present key findings and recommendations, offer brief analyses, explain the Foundation's further plans and name KAS contact persons.

 

Dr. Kristin Wesemann

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Head of Strategy and Planning

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