Publications

Türkiye on the Road to COP31

From Host to Shaper of International Climate Diplomacy

COP31 in Antalya offers Türkiye an opportunity to further strengthen its role as a significant actor in international climate diplomacy. As host of a conference deliberately positioned as a “COP of Implementation,” Türkiye is placing emphasis on investment, climate finance, and concrete implementation projects rather than the negotiation of new targets. Turkish climate policy closely links climate action with economic development and energy security. Key priorities of the Presidency include electrification, climate finance, the circular economy, and resilient cities. These priorities also create new opportunities for cooperation with Germany and the European Union, particularly in the fields of industrial transformation, sustainable finance, and the green transition.

El Niño in Latin America

When the climate becomes a stress test for the state

Latin America is bracing itself for one of the strongest El Niño events in decades, which is expected to peak between October 2026 and spring 2027. The consequences vary from region to region: Mexico, Central America, Venezuela, Colombia and Bolivia face the threat of drought, heatwaves and forest fires, whilst heavy rainfall and flooding are expected along the coast of Ecuador and northern Peru, as well as in the Cono Sur. What the region has in common is that El Niño is set to hit already strained household budgets, weak infrastructure and, in many places, weakened institutions. The reports from the KAS’s overseas offices therefore reveal a common pattern: the extent of the damage is likely to be determined less by the intensity of the weather event than by the states’ ability to take precautions, coordinate efforts and distribute aid transparently. El Niño thus becomes a stress test for water, energy and food security – and, ultimately, for statehood as a whole.

The Post-Midterm Power Struggle

How Donald Trump's room to maneuver has changed following the U.S. midterms

For the final two years of his presidency, Donald Trump will, for the first time, face a Congress in which Democrats control both chambers. They will be able to advance their own legislative priorities, exercise greater oversight of the administration, and influence appointments to key positions. Trump, however, retains his veto power and can continue to govern in many areas under existing laws. The extent to which the election results translate into policy changes will depend on where Congress and the White House need to cooperate to advance their respective agendas.

Assessment of the Knesset Election Results

One Winner, Many Losers

For months, Israelis had been talking about one thing above all else: Election Day. The fierce campaign revolved around political responsibility for the Hamas attack of October 7, the prospect of mandatory military service for the ultra-Orthodox, the war against Iran, and for some, even the future of Israeli democracy. Nearly 78 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots. The result is surprising.

America Before the Election: The Final Votes Will Decide

Millions of Americans have already voted, while Republicans and Democrats are vying for the remaining votes. With just a few days to go before the midterm elections, the race for a majority is focused on a manageable number of states and congressional districts. The Democrats are entering the final stretch with a more favorable outlook for the House of Representatives; in the Senate, several paths to a majority remain open. Donald Trump is a key figure for both parties. However, what will be decisive is how national sentiment, the candidates' personal profiles, and local mobilization translate into votes on November 3.

U.S. Midterms 2026: From Campaign Messages to the Ballot Box

Before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, Republicans and Democrats are pursuing different paths to securing a majority. Republicans are campaigning on tax relief measures while warning voters about the consequences of their political opponents' policies. Democrats, meanwhile, are linking rising living costs to their call for stronger oversight and accountability in Washington. At the same time, allegations of corruption and conflicts of interest are becoming more prominent in several closely contested races. Both parties face the same challenge: reaching voters who often engage with politics only casually. As campaigning increasingly takes place through television advertisements, short-form videos, and AI-generated search results, election strategies are evolving as well.

Reform of sexual offences legislation: Urgent introduction of the ‘Yes Means Yes’ model

On women’s right to sexual self-determination

The Giesèle Pelicot case has accelerated the political and social debate in France regarding the introduction of the so-called ‘Yes Means Yes’ model, under which only explicit consent to a sexual act is regarded as the criterion for consensuality. In Germany, the so-called ‘No Means No’ model is currently applied: It is not the absence of consent that constitutes the criterion for rape, but solely explicit opposition to a sexual act. Legally, this is governed by Section 177 of the Criminal Code.

Historic Comeback in Brazil: Lula Elected President for a Fourth Term

Mobilization on the streets and social media turns the tide. But a chaotic election day, polarization and Brazil’s rightward shift remain.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva turned the Brazilian presidential election around in a historic comeback, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.79 per cent of the vote. Key factors in his victory were the reorganisation of his campaign, widespread social mobilisation and his focus on defending democracy. Nevertheless, his victory does not mark a shift to the left: Brazil remains deeply polarised and Lula will have to govern with an even more conservative Congress.

Opposition as an Opportunity – Not Just for the PNL

Behind the Formation of Romania's New Government

Luca Niculescu is set to become Romania’s new Prime Minister with the support of, among others, the PSD, PNL, and UDMR. Following the vote, PNL will move into opposition, what seems as an opportunity both for the party itself and for Romania’s political system.

Who Finances the Battle for Congress?

Campaign Finance and Political Priorities in the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections

Just weeks before the 2026 midterm elections, hundreds of millions of dollars are flowing into the battle for control of Congress. Beyond candidates’ official campaign accounts, parties, super PACs, major donors, and interest groups are playing an increasingly influential role in shaping the political contest. The distribution of these funds provides valuable insight into which races are considered decisive for congressional majorities and which policy priorities attract the strongest financial support. At the same time, it highlights the complexity of the U.S. campaign finance system, where influence depends not only on the amount of money available but also on who controls its deployment. Examining campaign finance therefore adds an important dimension to the analysis of the 2026 congressional elections, complementing polling data and electoral projections.