In the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD emerges as the largest party, whilst the CDU suffers significant losses. The BSW enters the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament. The ruling FDP, by contrast, fails to clear the five per cent threshold. For Die Linke, the SPD and the Greens, the changes are minor. Voters in Saxony-Anhalt have also proved highly volatile in the past. No nationwide electoral trend is discernible.
In Saxony-Anhalt, a generally pessimistic mood and outlook for the future dominate people’s attitudes. The same picture emerges across all areas. 20 per cent rate the economic situation as very good or good. This represents a fall of 27 points. Expectations for the future have also plummeted. Whilst 41 per cent still believed in 2021 that the state was well prepared for the future, by 2026 only 28 per cent held this view. The AfD’s support base is particularly characterised by material and identity-related concerns. Fears of an influx of foreigners (91 per cent) and that ‘the way we live in Germany is changing too much’ (85 per cent) are more pronounced among this group than any other. 89 per cent fear that prices could rise so sharply that they will no longer be able to pay their bills, and a further 80 per cent believe they will no longer be able to maintain their standard of living. Given that the AfD is particularly successful amongst voters who do not have a higher education qualification and describe themselves as manual workers, it stands to reason that these concerns are linked to actual financial hardship. Similarly, there is a sense of being disadvantaged. For instance, 66 per cent of AfD supporters say they receive much less or slightly less than their fair share. This goes hand in hand with the feeling that East Germans are ‘still second-class citizens in many respects’. With 83 per cent agreeing, this sentiment is particularly prevalent amongst AfD supporters. However, a large proportion of supporters of Die Linke (75 per cent), the CDU (68 per cent) and the SPD (65 per cent) also share this impression (Infratest dimap).
The AfD’s electoral success is driven by the polarisation of society and the party system, the popularity of its lead candidate, and perceptions of the party’s competence. AfD supporters and those of the Greens and the Left form the strongest polar opposites. The heterogeneity in attitudes means that the differences between the various voter groups are exceptionally marked. Ultimately, for the first time in a federal [territorial] state all parties (on a scale of +5 to -5) achieve a negative score (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen). This is a typical consequence of the division among voter groups, who rate only the party closest to them positively. The polarisation of society is also particularly evident in the assessment of whether it would be better for politics if the AfD were to govern in Saxony-Anhalt. On average, 32 per cent of the population believe it would be better. However, this figure is solely due to the support of AfD supporters, 87 per cent of whom share this view – in addition, 35 per cent of BSW supporters express a positive opinion – whilst among all other supporter groups, the figure stands at 0–2 per cent (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen).
Another visible sign of polarisation is the rise in voter turnout to 77.8 per cent, which represents an exceptional increase of 17.5 percentage points. There is a consensus amongst election researchers that, alongside a number of other factors, the degree of polarisation is a key determinant of voter turnout. The AfD has benefited far more than average from this huge rise in voter turnout, having managed to mobilise an additional 170,000 voters from the non-voting segment. As a result, votes from this segment account for around 30 per cent of the AfD’s total second votes (576,000).
The election analysis for the Saxony-Anhalt state election can be found here. All graphs and tables on which the election analysis is based can be found at the end of the document. Please note that the analysis is only available in English.
