New Yemen, New Gulf

In the wake of the dramatic events in the Yemeni civil war at the turn of the year, the cards have been reshuffled between the regional powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The military offensive by Emirati-backed separatists and the counterattack by the Yemeni government allied with Saudi Arabia are more than just another chapter in the war – they have caused tensions between the two Gulf monarchies to boil over. Not only has the long-simmering animosity between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi fully come to surface, but the conflict also makes another round of confrontations in the Gulf more likely. Moreover, it raises fundamental questions about stability in the Middle East, for which the Gulf states were in fact considered guarantors. In the Gulf, a new phase of politics could be dawning, with two opposing poles of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) pursuing conflicting regional visions with the help of different coalition partners. Likewise, the breakdown of the former Saudi-UAE alliance is not without consequences for Europe's foreign policy in the Middle East, which so far relied on both protagonists as anchors of stability.