Landesarchiv Berlin / Thomas Platow

Monitor Election and Social Research

Analysis of the rerun election for the Berlin House of Representatives on 12 February 2023

Report on the preliminary final result, the main voting determinants, voter migration and social structure.

The CDU wins the election with a large distance to the other parties. It gains 10.2 percentage points compared to the 2021 election and achieves 28.2 percent of the second votes. The parties of the governing coalition of SPD, Greens and Left lose. The SPD has its historically lowest result in Berlin for the third time in a row. The FDP fails to clear the five-percent hurdle. Compared to other federal states, the election is characterized by particularly low degrees of satisfaction at all levels.

For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, an election had to be repeated. As it is not a new election, some special features apply. For example, the same candidates had to run as in the original 2021 election.

The election to the House of Representatives in Berlin is characterized by a particularly high degree of dissatisfaction at all levels. Compared to all other federal states, Berlin brings up the rear. 76 percent of those eligible to vote believe that Berlin is poorly prepared for the future. In no other federal state was there a similarly high level of pessimism before the state elections of the last few years.

The CDU is able to profit from this dissatisfaction and, with 28.2 percent, becomes the strongest party by a clear margin. This is reflected in the growing competence of the party and the reputation of the top candidate, Kai Wegner.

The SPD cannot benefit from the advantage of incumbency. For the third time in a row, it has achieved the worst election result in its history in Berlin. Despite the low reputation of their candidate, the Greens can keep the top result of the prior election.


Dr. Viola Neu


Deputy Head of Division Analysis and Consulting,
Head of Department Electoral and Social Research +49 30 26996-3506

About this series

The publications of the Election and Social Research Monitor are part of our Monitor publication series. The Monitor series deals with one main topic at a time from the perspective of KAS experts and places it in the political and social context on the basis of a few key points.