Webinar: The Middle East Maelstrom
YouTube
Laurence Weinbaum noted in his opening remarks that successes often bring challenges. He highlighted the tactical achievements of the United States and Israel but recalled the words of Churchill that “the problems of victory are more agreeable than those of defeat, but they are no less difficult.” The question of what is meant by victory cannot be avoided unless it is merely a rhetorical flourish. Clearly, the geopolitical topography of our neighbourhood has changed, and the consequences of this realignment are far reaching but we have to ask what comes next. He then handed over to the four experts, who each analyzed the first eleven days of the war from their respective perspectives and discussed the near- and medium-term future.
Dan Meridor, President of ICFR, emphasized that despite military successes, many questions remain unanswered, especially regarding a clear political objective. He asked what could be considered a victory as long as the Iranian regime and its structures continue to exist. Without a new agreement accepted by all sides, the conflict between Iran and Israel will not end, even if the war itself does. Political solutions beyond the military dimension are also needed in Lebanon and in relation to the Palestinians.
Guido Steinberg of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs warned that although Iran remains weakened, Israel is increasingly perceived regionally as a hegemonic power, which encourages new alliances against it. Saudi Arabia in particular could position itself more strongly as a counterweight, together with Turkey, to limit Israel’s influence. Given these dynamics, Israel must act swiftly on the diplomatic front to avoid strategic isolation.
Avital Leibovich of the American Jewish Committee in Israel focused on Israel’s objectives vis-à-vis Iran: nuclear capabilities remain unclear, enriched material is still available, and the missile arsenal has not been eliminated. She described the situation as a war of attrition without structural achievements. In Lebanon, the government is showing new approaches and a stance against Hezbollah, but a breakthrough remains distant. Politically, Israel is currently barely willing to make concessions. Nevertheless, it should continue to deepen cooperation with the Abraham Accords states.
Jonathan Rynhold of the Begin-Sadat Center at Bar-Ilan University stressed that major military successes could enable long-term changes. What will be decisive is the room for maneuver the United States grants Israel, including in view of U.S. global energy policy. A weakening of Iran offers Israel a window for regional and political initiatives—including new proposals to the Palestinians and progress in relations with Arab states.
Dr. Michael Rimmel, Head of the KAS Israel Office, concluded the webinar by noting the continuing volatility of the region and the related need to remain militarily capable and politically open.
